Although the college football season is nearly two months away from kick-off, that doesn’t mean there’s been a lack of action. End of May, BetMGM Released College Football Win Totals for the public to bet on. While many people are not into soccer mode yet, there are plenty who are. Money has been pouring in early in recent weeks and as a result some of the winning totals for the season have already moved up. Big-name programs like Alabama and Notre Dame are among those schools that have seen line moves in the early summer.
Alabama now has the highest win total in the country
When BetMGM originally posted their total winnings in college a month ago, four schools were tied for the highest expected total winnings. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson all opened with an over/under of 10.5 wins. However, when the betting started, one school rose to the top all by itself.
Alabama opened as a -200 favorite to rack up over 10.5 wins. Currently, they are a +110 underdog to take over 11.5 wins. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide is currently the only team in the country with a total of 11.5 wins.
Obviously, this is a huge line movement. With a total of 10.5 wins, you have the luxury of one regular season loss and still be able to cash in your over ticket. At the current win total of 11.5, you’re essentially betting on whether Alabama will go undefeated during the regular season or lose a game ahead of a potential SEC championship.
Last season, Alabama went 11-1 in regular season, dropping a game for Texas A&M at Kyle Field. If that were to happen again this season, Alabama gamblers with more than 10.5 wins would cash in tickets, while gamblers with more than 11.5 wins would rip theirs. Under Nick Saban in non-COVID shortened seasons, Alabama has finished the regular season with 12 wins four times, 11 wins seven times, 10 wins once, nine wins once and six wins once. In 2020, Alabama remained undefeated, but that was just 10 games in the regular season.
Alabama is the current favorite for the national title with +200. The Crimson Tide are the favorites to win the SEC at -125. They include returning stars such as quarterback Bryce Young and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. from last season. They may be the best team in the country, but will they be able to run the table and? go over 11.5 wins† History says that, despite their dynastic flight, they usually stumble at least once.
Other winning totals on the way
Alabama isn’t the only school to see their early summer win tally in motion. Gamblers are making their point about a few other major programs around the country.
Notre Dame opened as a +150 underdog to take more than 9.5 wins, but the win tally of the Irish has fallen to just 8.5 wins. Notre Dame opens the season in Columbus, where it will be a major underdog against the state of Ohio. Other tough challenges on the schedule include a home game against Clemson and a road game at USC. Even if the Fighting Irish drops all three of those games, they still have a way to get nine wins as long as they don’t get ambushed by a team like Boston College, BYU or North Carolina. Currently, Notre Dame is a -125 favorite to rack up over 8.5 wins.
As the off-season progresses, these numbers will continue to change. If you like a song it’s better to bet early to stay ahead of the market. Here are some other notable moves at the Power Five conferences.
Alabama is the only school in the SEC to see their winning totals deviate from the number, but some changes have been made to the odds associated with the winning totals for other teams.
LSU has gone from a -125 favorite to over 7.5 wins to a +115 underdog to do just that. Texas A&M is getting some love as it is now -145 to over 8.5 wins. They opened at -125.
Two Pac-12 schools saw their profit totals change early in the summer. Oregon State went from an expected win of 5.5 to a new total of 6.5 wins. The Beavers are currently +105 to rack up over 6.5 wins. Utah has seen its win tally rise from 8.5 wins to 9 wins.
California opened as a +110 underdog to take over 5.5 wins, but now it is a -120 favorite to achieve that. UCLA has gone from a -115 favorite to a -145 favorite to rack up over 8 wins. Washington state opened as +140 underdogs to take over 5.5 wins, but now there are only +105 underdogs to get there.
There has been an interesting movement in the Big 12, but perhaps the most notable movement is the Texas Longhorns.
Texas opened as a -200 favorite to rack up over 8.5 wins, but now the Longhorns are only -125 favorites to exceed that number. The implied probability based on those odds went from nearly 67% to just over 55%.
The state of Iowa has seen its projected win tally drop from 7.5 wins to 6.5 wins. Oklahoma has also seen its win tally drop a bit as it has gone from 9.5 wins to a flat nine. Conversely, Oklahoma State’s win tally went from 8 wins to 8.5.
Louisville is the largest mover so far this off-season in the ACC. The total number of wins has increased from 5.5 wins to 6.5 wins.
Duke’s expected win tally has fallen to just three wins after opening at 3.5. Florida State opened as +105 underdog to take more than 6.5 wins, but now the Seminoles are -130 favorites to get there. NC State has gone from -125 to -145 to rack up over 8.5 wins.
Virginia has seen a negative move. The Cavaliers opened as -140 favorites to rack up over 7.5 wins, now they are +125 underdogs to rack up a minimum of eight wins.
There hasn’t been much movement in the Big Ten.
Ohio State opened as a -200 favorite to go over 10.5 winsbut those odds have now dropped to just -175.
Maryland opened with a total of 5.5 wins, but that has risen to six wins.